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Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|